Where have the jobs gone?

April 28th, 2008 § 0

Con­sider the fol­low­ing graph:

U.S. Tariff Rates - Ratio of Import Duties to Values: 1821-1996
(Image cour­tesy of http://pw1.netcom.com/~rdavis2)
It is appar­ent that:

  • The United States is at his­tor­i­cal lows, when it comes to import tariffs
  • That when US man­u­fac­tur­ing was in its “golden age”, tar­iffs were much higher than now
  • That tar­iffs were at his­toric highs dur­ing the Great Depression

I would pro­pose that a mod­er­ate increase in tar­iffs (10–15%, across the board) would pro­tect exist­ing US man­u­fac­tur­ing jobs, pro­vide a non-taxpayer-based rev­enue stream to the Fed­eral Gov­ern­ment*, pos­si­bly encour­age growth in domes­tic man­u­fac­tur­ing sec­tors, and in so doing increase the tax­payer base here in these United States.

*I also note that US Gov­ern­ment received most of its bud­get from import tar­iffs before the Per­sonal Income Tax was insti­tuted.

Its baloney!

April 5th, 2008 § 1

Global warm­ing is baloney. Balder­dash. Flim­flam. Stink­ing bilge. Blue bunkum and utter clap­trap. Hog­wash, rub­bish, and, when you get down to it, trash.
As a start­ing point for any sort of dis­cus­sion, please pro­vide a oper­a­tional def­i­n­i­tion of the tem­per­a­ture of the Earth and how it is to be mea­sured (I dou­ble dog dare you). We can go from there.

Still more on reality

April 4th, 2008 § 0

Yesterday’s San Fran­cisco Chron­i­cle had an inter­est­ing arti­cle. Some­what dis­tress­ing, actually.

A new study on physi­cians in Cal­i­for­nia shows a glar­ing gap between the num­ber of doc­tors of color com­pared with the state’s eth­ni­cally diverse pop­u­la­tion, espe­cially among African Amer­i­cans and Latinos.

At the same time, the state has a dis­pro­por­tion­ate num­ber of Asian and white doc­tors, accord­ing to the UCSF study, which focuses on doc­tor eth­nic­ity and lan­guage fluency.

It found that out of nearly 62,000 prac­tic­ing doc­tors in Cal­i­for­nia, only 5 per­cent are Latino even though Lati­nos com­prise a third of the state’s total pop­u­la­tion. Only 3 per­cent of doc­tors in Cal­i­for­nia are black, com­pared with 7 per­cent of the state’s over­all black pop­u­la­tion. While Lati­nos and African Amer­i­cans make up about 40 per­cent of the state’s res­i­dents, fewer than 10 per­cent of California’s doc­tors are black or Latino.

The dis­par­ity is par­tic­u­larly alarm­ing because minor­ity physi­cians are far more likely to prac­tice pri­mary care med­i­cine and work with poor or unin­sured patients in rural areas, inner cities or other com­mu­ni­ties with a chronic short­age of physicians.

This is a crit­i­cal pub­lic health issue,” said Dr. Kevin Grum­bach, direc­tor of the UCSF Cen­ter for Cal­i­for­nia Health Work­force Stud­ies, which released the report Wednes­day. “These pat­terns are real. The prob­lem is even worse than we thought.”

In a state with more than 35 mil­lion peo­ple, fewer than 3,300 Latino and only about 2,000 African Amer­i­can physi­cians are in “active patient care,” said Grumbach.

It brings the num­bers home in a con­crete and stark way,” he said.

So… accord­ing to Dr. Kevin, Cal­i­for­nia has a crit­i­cal pub­lic health prob­lem because there are not enough His­panic and black doc­tors. He’s not say­ing there is a short­age of doc­tors. He’s say­ing that it is polit­i­cally incor­rect that the ratios of MD’s do not match the pop­u­la­tion.
Some­thing, of course, must be done. Absolutely.

The report included the fol­low­ing rec­om­men­da­tions for solv­ing the eth­nic­ity gap among doctors:

– Invest in the edu­ca­tional pipeline prepar­ing minor­ity and dis­ad­van­taged stu­dents for careers in med­i­cine and other health professions.

– Pro­mote diver­sity as a key part of expand­ing Cal­i­for­nia med­ical education.

– Hold health pro­fes­sions schools account­able for an insti­tu­tional cul­ture and envi­ron­ment that pro­motes diver­sity, recruit­ment and reten­tion of under­rep­re­sented minorities.

– Increase incen­tives for physi­cians to work in under served com­mu­ni­ties in California.

I’ll war­rant that the “cure” will be worse than the prob­lem. Cal­i­for­nia will spend mil­lions of tax­payer dol­lars to increase the num­ber of minor­ity med school stu­dents, forc­ing out oth­er­wise qual­i­fied stu­dents with the wrong skin color. A larger, real cri­sis will slowly emerge: not enough doc­tors.
The quote from Dr. Satin­der Swa­roop says much:

It is cul­tural,” said Dr. Satin­der Swa­roop, chair of the Cal­i­for­nia Med­ical Asso­ci­a­tion Foundation’s Net­work of Eth­nic Physi­cian Orga­ni­za­tions, dur­ing a news con­fer­ence Wednes­day at the UC Davis School of Medicine.

Asian fam­i­lies push their chil­dren,” said Swa­roop, who prac­tices in South­ern Cal­i­for­nia. “Five peo­ple in my fam­ily are doc­tors. Part of it is we feel it is the field to go to.”

Expec­ta­tions (par­tic­u­larly from fam­ily) has a pow­er­ful influ­ence on chil­dren. I doubt that the med­ically under­rep­re­sented minor­ity groups had much in the way of either fam­ily or expec­ta­tions. It is well known that the black com­mu­nity in Amer­ica is plagued with a lack of sta­ble fam­i­lies. (“Sin­gle par­ents accounted for almost two-thirds (65 per­cent) of all African Amer­i­can fam­ily groups with chil­dren present, com­pared with 35 per­cent among His­pan­ics and 25 per­cent among Whites.”) Low expec­ta­tions pro­duces low achieve­ment. Amer­ica has come to expect minori­ties to be poor and stu­pid, and in gen­eral that is a role they have accepted and ful­filled.
By the way, ‘minor­ity’ has become a polit­i­cal code­word for “Blacks and His­pan­ics”; Asians, obvi­ously, are not minori­ties in the nor­mal sense because they have a ten­dency to excel.
If we want the racial prob­lems to go away, we must accept cer­tain facets of real­ity. First, the ideal that all races are equal (Gor­rors! I expect some gen­tle feed­back for that). Sec­ond, that gov­ern­ment is the way to fix social ills. Third, that after 50 years of try­ing really hard, our cur­rent meth­ods of han­dling racial issues is work­ing. Fourth, that this (the ratio of doc­tors) is a prob­lem.
But, after look­ing at the world through the same win­dow for fifty years, I guess you start see­ing the same thing.

More on that reality thing

April 3rd, 2008 § 0

Came across this per­spec­tive on the cur­rent eco­nomic sit­u­a­tion. I’ll quote it here, credit goes to Jerry Bowyer:

Last Sat­ur­day, I was a guest on Larry Kudlow’s WABC radio pro­gram. Larry’s a good friend and we have been talk­ing quite a bit lately on his TV and radio shows about the ways in which Fed­eral reg­u­la­tions have cre­ated the sub-prime mort­gage cri­sis. This is far and away the most under­re­ported aspect of the mort­gage story, and aside from Larry’s shows and a few con­ser­v­a­tive media out­lets, such as Town­hall, it has been com­pletely miss­ing from the discussion.

That’s a shame, because there sim­ply was no such thing as a devel­oped Sub­prime mort­gage indus­try until the US con­gress cre­ated it by order­ing banks to issue loans to peo­ple who were not credit wor­thy. Com­mu­nity activist groups (such as the Pub­lic Inter­est Research Group and Acorn) and civil rights law firms (such as Miner, Barn­hill & Gal­land) had make their liv­ing by accus­ing banks of racism when the banks hes­i­tated to approve loan requests from minor­ity cit­i­zens with poor credit scores. Fair Hous­ing laws, cham­pi­oned by Amer­i­can Heros like Mar­tin Luther King, Jr., had long-ago out­lawed the prac­tice of ‘redlin­ing’, which is refus­ing to sell or rent to blacks in cer­tain neigh­bor­hoods. But a new gen­er­a­tion of activists mod­i­fied the con­cept of redlin­ing, apply­ing it not just to race-based home sale covenants, but to any refusal to lend to a minor­ity mem­ber, even for sen­si­ble finan­cial reasons.

The Com­mu­nity Rein­vest­ment Act was cre­ated as a result. Ini­tially the act was used, not to get banks to lend to minor­ity house­holds, but to get them to cut checks to ‘com­mu­nity groups’. Left of cen­ter activist agen­cies, which had pushed for the act in the first place, used it as a shake­down tool. So long as the banks kept pay­ing off to the activists, the activists would hold off on send­ing com­plaints to the bank reg­u­la­tors’ CRA files.

Even­tu­ally, under Clin­ton, the CRA was renewed and, not sur­pris­ingly, made more puni­tive. Banks were required to make Sub­prime mort­gage loans now too, or else suf­fer a low CRA rat­ing and be pun­ished accord­ingly. The Fed played it’s part. The Home Mort­gage Dis­clo­sure rules cre­ated an unfunded man­date for banks to track and pub­licly dis­close the race and gen­der of it’s mort­gage clients. Now the shake­down artists had an easy source of com­plaints and a club with which to beat the banks into sub­mis­sion. The bankers com­plied and the Sub­prime mort­ga­gage mar­ket was born.

But the bad paper remained prin­ci­pally on the bal­ance sheets of the orig­i­nat­ing banks for a cou­ple of years. The banks and their share­hold­ers were directly hurt, but not the gen­eral pub­lic, at least in the begin­ning, that is until the bank reg­u­la­tors once again inter­vened and encour­aged banks to push the paper out to unsus­pect­ing investors.

First the Fed issued guid­ance which warned the banks that their cap­i­tal require­ments would be severely raised in response to the Sub­prime mort­gages. In other words, banks were told that to the extent that they issued mort­gages to high risk bor­row­ers, to that extent they would not be allowed to put as much of their money into income-producing activ­i­ties. The banks had already been told by the Fed that they would have to set aside more money for mort­gages in gen­eral, and now they were being hit again for the Sub­prime variety.

Sec­ond, the Fed issued guid­ance on how to mix Sub­prime mort­gage paper in with good paper and sell the result­ing com­pos­ite secu­rity to the gen­eral mar­ket. This is how the ‘toxic waste’ of bad debt was pumped out into the world. This is why credit mar­kets are now hav­ing trou­ble clear­ing. This is why banks are tak­ing mas­sive write-downs of the loans which still exist on their books. This is why for­eign investors don’t want to buy US mort­gages, or bank stocks, and con­se­quently don’t want to buy the dol­lars in which they are denom­i­nated either. If you add to this a Secu­rity and Exchange Com­mis­sion rul­ing which com­pels banks to ‘mark to mar­ket’, which means they are forced to show large losses in times of mar­ket panic, you give a legal man­date for short-term think­ing. You cre­ate a more seri­ous cri­sis for the sys­tem and a fatal blow to the weaker banks.

This cri­sis has the fin­ger­prints of con­gress and its bureau­cratic enforcers all over it. It also has the fin­ger­prints of a gen­er­a­tion of activists and ‘fair hous­ing’ lawyers as well.

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